← Hobby Lords PTM Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 1
at Hobby Lords PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 16.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +3.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.7% | -7.7 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.6% | +15.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.4% | +8.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 51 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Molten Echo | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Smolder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mote Sear | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |