← Hobby Lords PTM Store Championship
Fire Crux MerlinTier 1
at Hobby Lords PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
8-3-0
overall winrate
72.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.5%
avg ELO +4.1 per match
expected value
53.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1302
· median 1302
· range 1203–1401
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1169
Q3 1335
1465
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 22.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 16.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
