Hobby Lords PTM Store Championship

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	4	22.2%	10-10-0	50.0%	47.8%	50.0%	49.0%	1273	—
2		Water Aetherwing	Tier 2	3	16.7%	5-6-2	46.2%	52.9%	48.6%	51.4%	1182	↓ low
3		Fire Aetherwing	Tier 2	2	11.1%	4-6-0	40.0%	50.1%	49.5%	51.9%	1192	↓ low
4		Fire Crux Merlin	Tier 1	2	11.1%	8-3-0	72.7%	59.5%	53.7%	50.8%	1302	↑ top
5		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 1	1	5.6%	3-2-0	60.0%	54.6%	54.8%	54.2%	1350	↑ top
6		Fire Exia	Tier 1	1	5.6%	3-2-1	58.3%	53.5%	50.5%	49.8%	1383	↑ top
7		Fire Oblation	Tier 2	1	5.6%	2-3-0	40.0%	49.0%	49.8%	52.3%	1254	—
8		Water Crux Assassin	Tier 2	1	5.6%	0-5-0	0.0%	24.7%	36.7%	37.8%	1131	↓ low
9		Wind Allies	Tier 2	1	5.6%	1-4-0	20.0%	44.4%	39.3%	44.9%	1122	↓ low
10		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 1	1	5.6%	6-1-0	85.7%	59.3%	58.8%	53.6%	1465	↑ top
11		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 1	1	5.6%	2-2-1	50.0%	46.1%	51.7%	49.1%	1280	—

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Aggro 4 decks · 22.2%
• Water Aetherwing 3 decks · 16.7%
• Fire Aetherwing 2 decks · 11.1%
• Fire Crux Merlin 2 decks · 11.1%
• Fire Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 5.6%
• Fire Exia 1 deck · 5.6%
• Fire Oblation 1 deck · 5.6%
• Water Crux Assassin 1 deck · 5.6%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 5.6%
• Wind Astra Cleric 1 deck · 5.6%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 5.6%