EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Msgitek Store Champ.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 2 | 10.5% | 8 | 81.2% | 60.3% | 57.3% | 53.4% | 1524 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 10.5% | 8 | 87.5% | 75.0% | 55.8% | 56.7% | 1392 | — |
| 3 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 43.4% | 53.3% | 46.9% | 1616 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 44.2% | 52.0% | 45.5% | 1678 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 58.5% | 51.1% | 52.7% | 1356 | — |
| 6 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 49.7% | 50.0% | 47.2% | 1423 | — |
| 7 | Wind Alice | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.7% | 50.0% | 48.8% | 1484 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 49.1% | 48.6% | 47.5% | 1648 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.5% | 48.0% | 49.8% | 1410 | — |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 43.9% | 47.2% | 45.6% | 1517 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.0% | 46.7% | 49.3% | 1445 | — |
| 12 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.1% | 45.0% | 49.2% | 1097 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.4% | 45.0% | 49.4% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 46.0% | 42.9% | 47.6% | 1257 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Allies | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.8% | 40.0% | 40.6% | 1280 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Fractal | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 34.3% | 40.0% | 43.7% | 1124 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Crux Assassin | 1 | 5.3% | 1 | 0.0% | 48.7% | 40.0% | 48.7% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 5.3% | 1 | 0.0% | 48.7% | 40.0% | 48.7% | 1193 | ↓ low |