← Phantom Monarch Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarch Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horse and Taxes | 2 | 18.2% | 5 | 90.0% | 53.4% | 62.6% | 51.7% | 1620 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 27.3% | 12 | 70.8% | 62.0% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 1349 | — |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.2% | 48.3% | 51.6% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 42.0% | 41.5% | 1250 | — |
| 5 | Slimes | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 45.6% | 41.7% | 46.2% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Umbra Alice | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | 1095 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 50.3% | 40.0% | 48.2% | 1053 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.3% | 40.0% | 44.9% | 1124 | ↓ low |