Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at AeXern Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Exia | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Water Genbu | 8.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.5% | -5.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 8.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.1% | +2.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 37.5% | -9.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |