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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at AeXern Store Championship

decks
3 (13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10 5-4-1
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5% avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
53.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1334 · median 1417 · range 1162–1425 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1065 Q1 1184 Q3 1368 1460
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine 13.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 53.0% +4.8
Fire Exia 8.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.2% +6.7
Water Genbu 8.7% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 8.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.8% +7.7
Wind Seiryuu 8.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.6% +13.8
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.3% +5.3
Fire Suited 4.3% 0
Fire Suzaku 4.3% 0
Water Aetherwing 4.3% 0
Water Astra Ranger 4.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.8% -13.1
Water Fractal 4.3% 0
Water Tera Mage 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.2% +18.0
Wind Astra Cleric 4.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.1% -15.3
Wind Nico 4.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.2% -23.7
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Abnegation.

Played more by winners
Abnegation
Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers

No cards correlated with losing.

Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Abnegation +1.00 3 0 0
Calming Breeze +0.67 2 0 1
Cleansing Reunion -0.67 0 2 0
Veiling Breeze -0.67 0 2 1
Heavenly Guide +0.67 2 0 1
Ensnaring Fumes +0.67 2 0 1
Winbless Lookout -0.67 0 2 1
Lost Providence +0.67 2 0 1
Fairy Whispers -0.67 0 2 1
Mastermind Scheme -0.67 0 2 1
Scatter Essence +0.67 2 0 1
Topsy Decree +0.67 2 0 1
Blackmarket Broker -0.67 0 2 0
Stifling Trap -0.67 0 2 1
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.67 0 2 0
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen -0.67 0 2 0
Umbra Sight +0.67 2 0 1
Slice and Dice -0.67 0 2 1
Nullifying Lantern -0.67 0 2 0
Blinding Orb +0.67 2 0 1
Penumbral Waltz -0.67 0 2 0
Nocturne's Oblivion +0.67 2 0 1
Regal Inquisition +0.00 1 1 1
Assassin's Ripper +0.00 1 1 1
Dream Fairy +0.00 1 1 1
Innervate Agility +0.00 1 1 1

JSON: /api/events/42911/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike