Water GenbuTier 1
at AeXern Store Championship
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
9-3-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.2%
avg ELO +4.8 per match
expected value
59.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1288
· median 1288
· range 1153–1423
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1065
Q1 1184
Q3 1368
1460
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.9% | -6.0 |
| Wind Nico | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
