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Water FractalTier 1

at AeXern Store Championship

decks
1 (4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5 3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.7% avg ELO +5.6 per match
expected value
51.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1333 · median 1333 · range 1333–1333 (1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1065 Q1 1184 Q3 1368 1460
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine 13.0% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 13.0% 0
Fire Exia 8.7% 0
Water Genbu 8.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.8% -5.1
Wind Luxem Assassin 8.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.8% +12.6
Wind Seiryuu 8.7% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.3% 0
Fire Suited 4.3% 0
Fire Suzaku 4.3% 0
Water Aetherwing 4.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.2% -7.7
Water Astra Ranger 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.1% +13.0
Water Tera Mage 4.3% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 4.3% 0
Wind Nico 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.4% +15.1
Decklists · 1 from this event

The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/42911/archetypes/Water Fractal