Water FractalTier 1
at AeXern Store Championship
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.7%
avg ELO +5.6 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1333
· median 1333
· range 1333–1333
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1065
Q1 1184
Q3 1368
1460
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
