← Storm Gate PTM Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Storm Gate PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Razorgale 1 5.0% 7 92.9% 79.9% 59.6% 61.2% 1423 ↑ top
2 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 5.0% 7 71.4% 59.6% 56.8% 55.3% 1399 ↑ top
3 Water Genbu 2 10.0% 11 63.6% 51.2% 54.8% 51.9% 1507 ↑ top
4 Wind Seiryuu 2 10.0% 9 55.6% 40.1% 53.5% 48.8% 1395
5 Wind Shadowstrike 2 10.0% 8 50.0% 35.3% 50.8% 44.5% 1488 ↑ top
6 Water Fractal 2 10.0% 7 57.1% 56.8% 50.0% 50.9% 1310
7 Wind Overlord 1 5.0% 5 60.0% 60.7% 50.0% 51.7% 1301 ↓ low
8 Wind Arcane 1 5.0% 5 40.0% 47.5% 48.6% 50.3% 1291 ↓ low
9 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 5.0% 5 40.0% 53.4% 46.7% 51.1% 1350
10 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 5.0% 3 33.3% 53.3% 46.7% 52.8% 1252 ↓ low
11 Slimes 1 5.0% 3 33.3% 57.4% 46.7% 56.6% 1208 ↓ low
12 Wind Slice & Dice 1 5.0% 5 30.0% 39.4% 45.7% 45.9% 1335
13 Fire Crux Mage 1 5.0% 4 25.0% 37.2% 44.0% 44.7% 1322
14 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 10.0% 5 0.0% 33.5% 40.0% 44.8% 1216 ↓ low
15 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 5.0% 2 0.0% 40.8% 40.0% 45.0% 1303 ↓ low