Fire AetherwingTier 2
at 店冠賽
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1491
· median 1491
· range 1491–1491
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1225
Q1 1298
Q3 1450
1591
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.6% | -9.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
