Fire Crux MageTier 1
at 店冠賽
decks
2
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-4-1
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.1%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1389
· median 1389
· range 1296–1482
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1225
Q1 1298
Q3 1450
1591
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 13.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.8% | +4.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.1% | -15.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
