Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at 店冠賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.9% | +5.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.6% | +14.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.9% | -5.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peaceful Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |