← GA Middle East Weekly PTM #4

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly PTM #4. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Alice 1 8.3% 3 83.3% 51.2% 57.5% 50.7% 1313
2 Wind Shadowstrike 2 16.7% 5 80.0% 51.1% 56.0% 50.4% 1407 ↑ top
3 Wind Astra Cleric 3 25.0% 6 66.7% 50.7% 55.6% 50.4% 1302
4 Water Aetherwing 1 8.3% 4 62.5% 51.0% 50.0% 50.1% 1222 ↓ low
5 Wind Ciel 1 8.3% 3 50.0% 49.8% 50.0% 49.9% 1276
6 Arcane 1 8.3% 3 33.3% 49.6% 43.8% 49.6% 1302
7 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 8.3% 2 25.0% 49.5% 41.7% 49.5% 1196 ↓ low
8 Water Crux Assassin 1 8.3% 2 0.0% 48.3% 40.0% 49.0% 1235 ↓ low
9 Water Genbu 1 8.3% 2 0.0% 48.9% 40.0% 49.4% 1313
10 Water Slice & Dice 1 8.3% 2 0.0% 48.3% 40.0% 49.0% 1235 ↓ low