← GA Middle East Weekly PTM #4
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly PTM #4.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Alice | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 83.3% | 51.2% | 57.5% | 50.7% | 1313 | — |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 16.7% | 5 | 80.0% | 51.1% | 56.0% | 50.4% | 1407 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 25.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 50.7% | 55.6% | 50.4% | 1302 | — |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 51.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | 1222 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Ciel | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 50.0% | 49.9% | 1276 | — |
| 6 | Arcane | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.6% | 43.8% | 49.6% | 1302 | — |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 8.3% | 2 | 25.0% | 49.5% | 41.7% | 49.5% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 8.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.3% | 40.0% | 49.0% | 1235 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Genbu | 1 | 8.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.9% | 40.0% | 49.4% | 1313 | — |
| 10 | Water Slice & Dice | 1 | 8.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.3% | 40.0% | 49.0% | 1235 | ↓ low |