EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 御三家店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 83.3% | 57.9% | 58.0% | 54.7% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 83.3% | 63.1% | 57.5% | 57.1% | 1275 | — |
| 3 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 15.4% | 6 | 66.7% | 54.3% | 54.3% | 51.6% | 1317 | — |
| 4 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 7.7% | 2 | 50.0% | 54.8% | 53.3% | 56.1% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 15.4% | 6 | 50.0% | 48.5% | 52.2% | 51.2% | 1288 | — |
| 6 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 50.0% | 53.8% | 50.0% | 51.0% | 1243 | — |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.2% | 48.0% | 48.2% | 1302 | — |
| 8 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 50.0% | 42.3% | 47.5% | 44.9% | 1542 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.7% | 1 | 0.0% | 47.4% | 40.0% | 47.4% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Fractal | 2 | 15.4% | 4 | 0.0% | 33.9% | 37.3% | 42.2% | 1138 | ↓ low |