← GuildHall PTM Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 2
at GuildHall PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(13.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-7-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.8%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1200
· median 1298
· range 999–1304
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1207
Q3 1303
1482
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.3% | -7.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.4% | +1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.6 |
| Water Astra Diana | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Jin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +3.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
