← GuildHall PTM Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at GuildHall PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.6%
avg ELO -3.7 per match
expected value
43.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1350
· median 1350
· range 1350–1350
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1207
Q3 1303
1482
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -10.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Neos | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
