← GuildHall PTM Store Championship
Fire NeosTier 2
at GuildHall PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-4-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.4%
avg ELO -10.0 per match
expected value
36.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1047
· median 1047
· range 1047–1047
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1207
Q3 1303
1482
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.0% | -11.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -11.0 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
