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EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Topspot PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Water Fractal
58.8%
↑ top
1st
Wind Astra Arisanna
58.9%
↑ top
3rd
Fire Umbra Guardian
56.7%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Arisanna | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 90.0% | 53.7% | 58.9% | 52.0% | 1736 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 90.0% | 68.7% | 58.8% | 59.0% | 1516 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 47.0% | 56.7% | 50.4% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.5% | 55.6% | 53.0% | 1276 | — |
| 5 | Water Genbu | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 75.0% | 66.2% | 55.0% | 54.9% | 1498 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Arcane | 2 | 8.7% | 7 | 57.1% | 63.5% | 54.3% | 58.9% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 60.0% | 62.8% | 54.3% | 57.0% | 1290 | — |
| 8 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.5% | 52.5% | 52.2% | 1354 | — |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 17.4% | 19 | 50.0% | 38.7% | 48.7% | 45.0% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 56.0% | 48.6% | 50.9% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 51.6% | 48.3% | 49.0% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.3% | 47.5% | 50.9% | 1508 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 47.4% | 46.3% | 48.3% | 1345 | — |
| 14 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 47.4% | 46.3% | 48.3% | 1345 | — |
| 15 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 25.0% | 48.2% | 45.0% | 49.4% | 1141 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 4.3% | 3 | 16.7% | 33.5% | 43.3% | 42.3% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 25.0% | 34.2% | 43.0% | 43.2% | 1255 | — |
| 18 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 38.5% | 35.6% | 44.9% | 1032 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 37.0% | 35.6% | 42.9% | 1010 | ↓ low |