← GA Middle East Weekly PTM #5
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly PTM #5.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Alice | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 100.0% | 51.5% | 60.0% | 50.7% | 1313 | — |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 16.7% | 3 | 83.3% | 50.8% | 56.7% | 50.4% | 1407 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 83.3% | 51.6% | 56.0% | 50.7% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Ciel | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 50.8% | 55.0% | 50.6% | 1276 | — |
| 5 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 50.6% | 53.3% | 50.3% | 1222 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.6% | 50.0% | 50.2% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 16.7% | 6 | 33.3% | 48.1% | 45.3% | 49.2% | 1332 | — |
| 8 | Fire Suited | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.1% | 45.0% | 50.0% | 1302 | — |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 8.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.2% | 40.0% | 48.9% | 1346 | — |
| 10 | Fire Arcane Rai | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 49.2% | 35.6% | 49.5% | 1093 | ↓ low |