← GA Middle East Weekly PTM #5

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly PTM #5. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Alice 1 8.3% 3 100.0% 51.5% 60.0% 50.7% 1313
2 Wind Shadowstrike 2 16.7% 3 83.3% 50.8% 56.7% 50.4% 1407 ↑ top
3 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 8.3% 3 83.3% 51.6% 56.0% 50.7% 1425 ↑ top
4 Wind Ciel 1 8.3% 3 66.7% 50.8% 55.0% 50.6% 1276
5 Fire Oblation 1 8.3% 3 66.7% 50.6% 53.3% 50.3% 1222 ↓ low
6 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 8.3% 3 33.3% 49.6% 50.0% 50.2% 1231 ↓ low
7 Fire Crux Mage 2 16.7% 6 33.3% 48.1% 45.3% 49.2% 1332
8 Fire Suited 1 8.3% 3 33.3% 50.1% 45.0% 50.0% 1302
9 Wind Seiryuu 1 8.3% 2 0.0% 48.2% 40.0% 48.9% 1346
10 Fire Arcane Rai 1 8.3% 3 0.0% 49.2% 35.6% 49.5% 1093 ↓ low