← Hobibear Gaming PTM Store Championship
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Hobibear Gaming PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-5-3
overall winrate
56.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.6%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
49.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1393
· median 1383
· range 1325–1472
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1148
Q1 1288
Q3 1401
1472
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.7% | +7.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 8.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Wind Chess | 8.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.7% | +7.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
