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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.3% | -5.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.5% | +6.3 |
| Chess | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Water Neos | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Water Overlord | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return to the Archive | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shroud in Mist | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nefarious Timepiece | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Imperial Accord | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enchanted Fete | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Water | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Oneiric Key | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |