← ArtofCards PTM Store Championship
Water NeosTier 2
at ArtofCards PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.7%
avg ELO +5.6 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1208
· median 1208
· range 1208–1208
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1200
Q3 1377
1519
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
