← Phantom Monarchs Store Champs
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarchs Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 100.0% | 77.5% | 62.2% | 62.0% | 1362 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 70.0% | 44.7% | 56.1% | 48.9% | 1562 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.0% | 54.7% | 50.8% | 1333 | — |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 11.8% | 8 | 62.5% | 58.0% | 53.3% | 53.2% | 1383 | — |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 2 | 11.8% | 10 | 55.0% | 57.7% | 51.2% | 53.2% | 1338 | — |
| 6 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.7% | 50.0% | 52.2% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 61.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | 1368 | — |
| 8 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 2 | 11.8% | 9 | 44.4% | 43.2% | 49.2% | 47.6% | 1390 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 39.4% | 48.6% | 47.2% | 1359 | — |
| 10 | Fire Suited | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 37.5% | 55.5% | 46.0% | 51.2% | 1114 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 45.2% | 44.2% | 1262 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 45.0% | 44.0% | 47.4% | 1225 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.5% | 43.3% | 42.6% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.4% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 1147 | ↓ low |