← Phantom Monarchs Store Champs

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarchs Store Champs. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Horse and Taxes 1 5.9% 5 100.0% 77.5% 62.2% 62.0% 1362
2 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 5.9% 5 70.0% 44.7% 56.1% 48.9% 1562 ↑ top
3 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 47.0% 54.7% 50.8% 1333
4 Fire Aggro 2 11.8% 8 62.5% 58.0% 53.3% 53.2% 1383
5 Water Fractal 2 11.8% 10 55.0% 57.7% 51.2% 53.2% 1338
6 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 60.7% 50.0% 52.2% 1436 ↑ top
7 Wind Lorraine 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 61.0% 50.0% 52.3% 1368
8 Wind Umbra Ranger 2 11.8% 9 44.4% 43.2% 49.2% 47.6% 1390 ↑ top
9 Water Slimes 1 5.9% 5 40.0% 39.4% 48.6% 47.2% 1359
10 Fire Suited 1 5.9% 4 37.5% 55.5% 46.0% 51.2% 1114 ↓ low
11 Water Ravishing Mill 1 5.9% 5 30.0% 35.7% 45.2% 44.2% 1262 ↓ low
12 Slimes 1 5.9% 4 25.0% 45.0% 44.0% 47.4% 1225 ↓ low
13 Water Astra Ranger 1 5.9% 4 25.0% 36.5% 43.3% 42.6% 1214 ↓ low
14 Fire Oblation 1 5.9% 4 0.0% 30.4% 40.0% 42.9% 1147 ↓ low