← Store Championship Postboardgaming Lexington
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship Postboardgaming Lexington.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 15.8% | 11 | 77.3% | 58.8% | 55.6% | 52.1% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 53.7% | 55.0% | 51.4% | 1432 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 58.4% | 54.3% | 54.6% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 10.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.6% | 52.2% | 53.2% | 1155 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 57.8% | 51.4% | 51.5% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 50.7% | 50.3% | 1138 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 10.5% | 7 | 57.1% | 64.1% | 50.0% | 54.2% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 10.5% | 8 | 56.2% | 53.0% | 49.3% | 49.2% | 1218 | — |
| 9 | Fire Suited | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 48.7% | 48.0% | 47.5% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 10.5% | 9 | 38.9% | 40.9% | 46.4% | 46.0% | 1191 | — |
| 11 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.1% | 43.3% | 46.4% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 37.9% | 40.0% | 44.4% | 1045 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.5% | 40.0% | 40.7% | 1126 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 37.9% | 40.0% | 44.4% | 1045 | ↓ low |