EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 8號卡牌屋店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 3 | 13.6% | 19 | 68.4% | 56.4% | 56.8% | 53.1% | 1398 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 4.5% | 8 | 75.0% | 60.8% | 56.0% | 53.6% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 9.1% | 13 | 65.4% | 48.6% | 55.1% | 49.7% | 1547 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 9.1% | 12 | 66.7% | 64.5% | 51.7% | 52.5% | 1293 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.1% | 51.4% | 49.5% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.6% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1386 | — |
| 7 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 9.1% | 9 | 50.0% | 55.5% | 49.1% | 51.2% | 1410 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Arcane | 2 | 9.1% | 11 | 45.5% | 48.9% | 47.8% | 48.5% | 1345 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.9% | 47.6% | 50.6% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 45.0% | 56.9% | 46.5% | 51.8% | 1202 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 41.7% | 56.4% | 45.6% | 50.0% | 1322 | — |
| 12 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 30.0% | 50.2% | 43.8% | 48.8% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 29.7% | 40.8% | 40.4% | 1348 | — |
| 14 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 0.0% | 18.2% | 40.0% | 37.6% | 1353 | — |
| 15 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 0.0% | 18.2% | 40.0% | 37.6% | 1353 | — |