Fire Crux MageTier 1
at 5/16 Yeti Webcam Weekly
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 15.6% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 51.0% | +0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Water Allies | 8.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Water Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |