Water ArisannaTier 2
at 5/16 Yeti Webcam Weekly
decks
1
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
43.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1444
· median 1444
· range 1444–1444
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1077
Q1 1202
Q3 1396
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 17.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 15.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
