EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 2 | 14.3% | 7 | 92.9% | 70.8% | 59.8% | 57.5% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 51.9% | 55.0% | 50.7% | 1509 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 14.3% | 5 | 80.0% | 59.4% | 54.3% | 51.6% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Nico | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.0% | 48.0% | 48.3% | 1424 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 48.0% | 48.0% | 47.7% | 1314 | — |
| 6 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.0% | 47.2% | 49.6% | 1248 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 7.1% | 2 | 50.0% | 53.5% | 46.7% | 48.5% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 1 | 7.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 52.1% | 46.7% | 51.0% | 1262 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 14.3% | 6 | 41.7% | 48.3% | 45.7% | 48.3% | 1279 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 43.7% | 43.3% | 47.7% | 1136 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 28.5% | 43.3% | 39.9% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 7.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 38.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | 1268 | ↓ low |