← Ember Rest - Store Championship - 07FEB2026
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ember Rest - Store Championship - 07FEB2026.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 100.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | 1423 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 66.7% | 59.3% | 57.8% | 59.8% | 1351 | — |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 73.9% | 56.0% | 60.2% | 1497 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 65.8% | 56.0% | 58.1% | 1387 | — |
| 5 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 40.6% | 53.3% | 49.7% | 1616 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 2 | 15.4% | 6 | 50.0% | 48.5% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 1492 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.4% | 48.0% | 49.0% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 31.3% | 46.7% | 41.3% | 1374 | — |
| 9 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 15.4% | 7 | 28.6% | 29.8% | 45.6% | 43.0% | 1392 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 39.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | 1097 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 7.7% | 2 | 0.0% | 41.7% | 40.0% | 45.7% | 1385 | — |