← IWTS Phantom Monarch Store Championships

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at IWTS Phantom Monarch Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 10.0% 4 100.0% 71.2% 60.0% 58.5% 1333 ↑ top
2 Water Umbra Guardian 1 10.0% 4 75.0% 61.2% 56.0% 55.3% 1240 ↑ top
3 Fire Exia 1 10.0% 4 62.5% 55.4% 54.0% 53.4% 1216
4 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 10.0% 4 50.0% 50.7% 52.0% 52.1% 1202
5 Fire Seiryuu 1 10.0% 4 62.5% 56.3% 52.0% 52.1% 1176 ↓ low
6 Wind Astra Cleric 1 10.0% 4 50.0% 49.6% 51.7% 51.2% 1225
7 Wind Razorgale 2 20.0% 8 37.5% 43.2% 47.4% 47.9% 1189
8 Wind Slice & Dice 1 10.0% 4 25.0% 38.9% 44.0% 44.7% 1163 ↓ low
9 Water Crux Merlin 1 10.0% 4 0.0% 26.9% 40.0% 40.6% 1120 ↓ low