EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at January 2026 Month-ender.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 87.5% | 54.8% | 57.5% | 51.9% | 1282 | — |
| 2 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 83.3% | 53.4% | 56.7% | 51.1% | 1289 | — |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 49.0% | 54.0% | 49.7% | 1421 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 50.1% | 53.3% | 50.0% | 1324 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 49.4% | 52.5% | 49.8% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 52.0% | 50.2% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 52.0% | 50.2% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 52.0% | 50.2% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Genbu | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 50.0% | 50.5% | 1241 | — |
| 10 | Wind Diao Chan | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.0% | 49.2% | 49.9% | 1229 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.4% | 46.0% | 49.4% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Arcane | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 16.7% | 47.3% | 45.7% | 49.5% | 1261 | — |
| 13 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 16.7% | 10 | 25.0% | 48.0% | 44.0% | 49.3% | 1178 | ↓ low |