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Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Stevenson Games PTM Store Champs
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.4%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1311
· range 1311–1311
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1065
Q1 1118
Q3 1378
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
