Water FractalTier 2
at Store championship
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.4%
avg ELO -8.4 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1264
· median 1264
· range 1264–1264
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1232
Q1 1265
Q3 1437
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Water Overlord | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
