Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Store championship
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-4-2
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.9%
avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1276
· median 1276
· range 1232–1319
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1232
Q1 1265
Q3 1437
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Water Neos | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Water Overlord | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
