← Zulu's Lynnwood PTM Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Zulu's Lynnwood PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Genbu 2 9.1% 10 65.0% 57.2% 55.3% 53.5% 1348 ↑ top
2 Water Aetherwing 2 9.1% 12 75.0% 59.1% 54.9% 51.7% 1375 ↑ top
3 Wind Seiryuu 2 9.1% 12 62.5% 60.5% 53.1% 54.1% 1333
4 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 4.5% 5 60.0% 51.3% 52.5% 51.2% 1315
5 Water Allies 1 4.5% 5 60.0% 55.1% 52.5% 52.3% 1357 ↑ top
6 Wind Allies 1 4.5% 5 60.0% 55.8% 51.7% 51.9% 1323
7 Wind Astra Cleric 1 4.5% 5 50.0% 46.7% 49.0% 47.9% 1471 ↑ top
8 Horse and Taxes 2 9.1% 12 50.0% 48.2% 48.9% 48.4% 1381 ↑ top
9 Fire Aggro 1 4.5% 4 50.0% 58.8% 48.6% 52.2% 1140 ↓ low
10 Fire Crux Mage 2 9.1% 8 37.5% 43.5% 48.0% 48.4% 1271
11 Wind Silvie 1 4.5% 4 25.0% 41.6% 46.7% 48.4% 1168 ↓ low
12 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 4.5% 4 37.5% 34.1% 46.7% 42.1% 1345 ↑ top
13 Fire Tera Mage 1 4.5% 5 40.0% 50.8% 45.7% 48.1% 1195 ↓ low
14 Arcane 2 9.1% 8 25.0% 42.8% 43.3% 46.4% 1133 ↓ low
15 Water Ravishing Mill 1 4.5% 4 25.0% 37.5% 43.3% 44.4% 1272
16 Water Astra Ranger 1 4.5% 3 0.0% 37.9% 40.0% 44.4% 1147 ↓ low