EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at EVO Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 10.3% | 17 | 70.6% | 56.9% | 56.7% | 53.5% | 1422 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 70.0% | 54.4% | 54.5% | 52.2% | 1410 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 4 | 13.8% | 21 | 61.9% | 54.9% | 54.4% | 52.2% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 2 | 6.9% | 11 | 59.1% | 50.3% | 52.8% | 49.5% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 60.0% | 63.2% | 52.2% | 56.8% | 1292 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.4% | 51.3% | 52.3% | 1324 | — |
| 7 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 30.0% | 41.1% | 51.1% | 52.1% | 1237 | — |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 50.0% | 61.7% | 51.0% | 55.9% | 1092 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 60.0% | 56.7% | 50.7% | 50.8% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 6.9% | 9 | 44.4% | 40.7% | 47.8% | 46.0% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Slimes | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 36.1% | 47.8% | 44.8% | 1372 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.0% | 46.7% | 46.5% | 1231 | — |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 20.0% | 41.3% | 45.7% | 49.7% | 1095 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 6.9% | 9 | 33.3% | 44.9% | 45.6% | 47.6% | 1130 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Suzaku | 4 | 13.8% | 17 | 35.3% | 43.3% | 44.1% | 47.3% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.7% | 44.1% | 46.6% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.4% | 4 | 25.0% | 49.6% | 42.2% | 47.4% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 3.4% | 2 | 0.0% | 43.1% | 40.0% | 44.6% | 1063 | ↓ low |