← Hobby Maker Store Championship！
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Hobby Maker Store Championship！.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 90.0% | 73.0% | 61.4% | 61.4% | 1214 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 47.2% | 55.6% | 50.7% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.7% | 55.2% | 52.8% | 1285 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.7% | 55.2% | 52.8% | 1285 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.1% | 55.0% | 52.7% | 1333 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 14.3% | 8 | 62.5% | 50.2% | 54.0% | 50.8% | 1300 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 14.3% | 12 | 54.2% | 51.5% | 54.0% | 52.4% | 1257 | — |
| 8 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 51.7% | 51.1% | 51.1% | 1232 | — |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 63.5% | 50.0% | 53.0% | 1210 | — |
| 10 | Slimes | 3 | 21.4% | 12 | 16.7% | 37.1% | 40.6% | 45.1% | 1119 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 0.0% | 28.7% | 35.2% | 38.5% | 1101 | ↓ low |