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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2

at Dragon nest ga store champ

decks
3 (10.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15 7-6-2
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1% avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
49.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1368 · median 1362 · range 1226–1516 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1209 Q1 1304 Q3 1419 1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Aetherwing 14.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 40.3% -9.3
Fire Oblation 7.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.7% +7.5
Water Allies 7.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.2% +6.7
Water Fractal 7.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.1% -20.6
Wind Luxem Zander 7.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.3% +11.7
Wind Seiryuu 7.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.9% -12.9
Wind Shadowstrike 7.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.7% +20.4
Wind Wakeup Combo 7.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 54.1% +6.6
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.4% +16.6
Fire Crux Mage 3.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 44.9% -4.9
Fire Exia 3.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.8% +2.9
Fire Firebloom Burn 3.6% 0
Fire Slimes 3.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.8% -16.3
Water Genbu 3.6% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 3.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.2% +6.7
Wind Astra Cleric 3.6% 0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Fragmented Spirit of Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin +1.00 1 0 0
Spurn to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Heavenly Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Enfeebling Orb -1.00 0 1 0
Three of Hearts +1.00 1 0 0
Ombreux Chevalier -1.00 0 1 0
Lost Providence -1.00 0 1 0
Inert Sword +1.00 1 0 0
Stalwart Shieldmate +1.00 1 0 0
Unmake Duality +1.00 1 0 0
Cremation Ritual -1.00 0 1 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 1 0 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Throw +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
The Looking Glass +1.00 1 0 0
Carter, Synthetic Reaper -1.00 0 1 0
Disenchant +1.00 1 0 0
Library Witch -1.00 0 1 0
Orb of Sealing -1.00 0 1 0
Reduce to Ash -1.00 0 1 0
Spirit of Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Sable Remnant +1.00 1 0 0
Flamme Sorcel -1.00 0 1 0
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen -1.00 0 1 0
Beastsoul Visage +1.00 1 0 0
Umbra Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Overlapping Visages +1.00 1 0 0
Butler's Augury -1.00 0 1 0
Flamewreath Call -1.00 0 1 0
Another Beginning -1.00 0 1 0
Profane Bindings -1.00 0 1 0
Beguiling Coup -1.00 0 1 0
Grim Pastiche -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/45190/archetypes/Fire Umbra Guardian