Water FractalTier 1
at Dragon nest ga store champ
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-5-1
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.3%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
53.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1423
· median 1423
· range 1414–1432
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1209
Q1 1304
Q3 1419
1730
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
