Water AetherwingTier 1
at Dragon nest ga store champ
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.7% | +12.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 61.5% | +8.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Refreshing Charge, Undercurrent Vantage, Viridian Protective Trinket. Losers more often ran: Snow White, Weiss Queen, Cerulean Decree, Unbroken Mustang.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 8 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refreshing Charge | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Charge the Soul | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Take Aim | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 |