Dawn of AshesTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.8%
avg ELO -7.0 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1158
· median 1158
· range 1158–1158
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1140
Q3 1284
1474
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
