Fire AggroTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
3-6-2
overall winrate
36.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.2%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1087
· median 1087
· range 1051–1122
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1140
Q3 1284
1474
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawn of Ashes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.3% | -4.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +19.0 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Wind Overlord | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
