Fire OverlordTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1162
· median 1162
· range 1162–1162
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1140
Q3 1284
1474
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -19.0 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Overlord decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
