Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at 塔普卡 PTM賽季店冠賽
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.0% | +7.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 12.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +16.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 |