Water FractalTier 1
at 塔普卡 PTM賽季店冠賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 12.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.0% | -7.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.8% | -7.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Chess | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Wind Exia | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 10 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 10 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |