EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Cardart PTM Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 3 | 12.0% | 15 | 73.3% | 53.8% | 57.7% | 51.7% | 1554 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 2 | 8.0% | 7 | 78.6% | 61.1% | 55.7% | 54.1% | 1548 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 8.0% | 10 | 75.0% | 57.5% | 54.9% | 52.5% | 1473 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 62.5% | 63.0% | 52.9% | 56.5% | 1347 | — |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 52.7% | 52.5% | 52.7% | 1275 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 49.4% | 50.0% | 48.7% | 1474 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.7% | 50.0% | 51.3% | 1343 | — |
| 8 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.5% | 48.0% | 47.9% | 1280 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 12.0% | 14 | 46.4% | 44.9% | 47.0% | 47.8% | 1387 | — |
| 10 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 8.0% | 10 | 30.0% | 39.7% | 45.8% | 47.9% | 1317 | — |
| 11 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.1% | 45.0% | 46.3% | 1224 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.5% | 45.0% | 50.7% | 1327 | — |
| 13 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 54.8% | 45.0% | 50.6% | 1280 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 54.0% | 44.4% | 49.1% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 12.5% | 42.1% | 44.3% | 47.9% | 1079 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.1% | 44.2% | 49.6% | 1257 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Diana | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | 44.6% | 1407 | — |
| 18 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 4.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 36.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | 1193 | ↓ low |