← 3/14/2026 [TCG] League PTM NA Online Grand Archive Regional #2
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at 3/14/2026 [TCG] League PTM NA Online Grand Archive Regional #2
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.0 |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 4 | 0-1-3 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.7% | -2.1 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.6% | +5.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.3% | +4.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.2% | +3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Water Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Water Tristan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.5 |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feu Awakening | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lost Providence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mirrorbound Covenant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |