← 3/14/2026 [TCG] League PTM NA Online Grand Archive Regional #2
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at 3/14/2026 [TCG] League PTM NA Online Grand Archive Regional #2
decks
2
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-4-2
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
42.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1229
· median 1229
· range 1215–1244
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1076
Q1 1259
Q3 1429
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Water Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tristan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
