← 3/14/2026 [TCG] League PTM NA Online Grand Archive Regional #2
Water AlliesTier 2
at 3/14/2026 [TCG] League PTM NA Online Grand Archive Regional #2
decks
3
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
10-9-3
overall winrate
52.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1392
· median 1363
· range 1353–1461
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1076
Q1 1259
Q3 1429
1652
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.0% | +1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 44.7% | -4.0 |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.2% | -6.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Water Tristan | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Wind Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
